After removing records for postcodes outside WA, the initial count of records is: 95713 Count of unique individuals who where tested 77552 27 individuals had no sex recorded (deleted from sex-related analysis) Count of individuals with at least one positive test 15903 6 UBT positive individuals had no sex recorded (deleted from sex-related analysis) Looking at just the first (perhaps only) test result Count of individuals with an initial positive test 15424 Count of individuals with an initial indeterminate test 5770 Count of individuals with an initial negative test 56358 <> Single negative result, ie test conducted but nothing found, is a measure of the rate of presentation for testing Count of initial negative results. Male: 23066, Female: 33273, Total: 56339, %Female 0.5906 Based on population estimates released by the ABS, the WA population grew by 2.18% pa UBT first positive detection grew by a rate of 14.55% pa, from 2022 in 2010 to 3315 in 2015 Count of unique individuals with at least one positive detection: Male: 6681, Female: 9216, total: 15897, %Female 0.5797 Expected count of female detections based on 2011 Census count of female population of WA: 7901.70 p-value of count based on WA population 2011 using binomial distribution statistic: 2.83e-97 BUT p-value of count of female positive detections based on percentage of presentations for testing, using binomial distribution statistic: 0.997 [Interpretation: While women appear to be significantly over-represented among a all those with positive UBT detections, they are actually not significantly more likely to be infected, based on p-value threshold of 0.05, once you take into account their greater rate of presentation for testing, which can be inferred from the percentage of women with an initial negative test finding. We assume that these are patients with related symptoms who are not found to have a Hp infection] <> This looks at the number of people with multiple detections, which relates to resistance to treatment Count of unique individuals with multiple (> 1) detections Male: 955, Female: 1764, %Female 0.6488 The higher percentage of women with multiple tests is significant based on binomial distribution statistic, p-value: 2.17e-10 973 individuals had more than 2 tests [In other words, first line treatment appears to work 82.90\% of the time, and first or second line treatment 93.88\% of the time, but of the individuals with multiple positive tests - implying at least 1 treatment failure - p-value of count of female multiple positive detections based on percentage of presentations for testing, using binomial distribution statistic is 2.17e-10. So, while the treatment failure rate is low overall, it is higher in women than men.] Counts of positive detections per person Female (N=11949), count of positive detections per person, mean 1.2965, std dev 0.7505, median 1, maximum 18 Male (N=8178), count of positive detections per person, mean 1.2241, std dev 0.6556, median 1, maximum 9 T test to look at whether lower mean count in males is significant T-test independent samples. Statistic -6.3338, p-value 2.456e-10 Rather than counting number of women versus men with multiple tests, this analysis looks at the number of tests per person. Notice that the median number for both men and women is 1. This reinforces the suggestion that the conventional first therapy works. The signficant diffence between the means suggests that, when that first treatment fails, it does so more often for women than men.] Drilling down into this, looking specifically at the rate of multiple (> 1) positive detections Counts of multiple positive detections Female (N=1764), count of positive detections per person, mean 2.5493, std dev 1.0011, median 2 Male (N=955), count of positive detections per person, mean 2.5675, std dev 0.9497, median 2 T-test independent samples. Statistic 0.4612, p-value 0.6447 Profile of number of positive tests (intractability of infection), is similar between women and men [Interpretation. Once initial treatment has failed, the efficacy of subsequent treatments is not significantly different in women versus men.] Of a starting count of 15903 individuals with positive UBT results, 143 have postcodes that cannot be mapped to level 2 ABS Statistical Areas (leaving 15760) Expected rate of testing (over the years 2010-2015) is 70.626 per 10,000 WA population <> Age at first positive detection (male) N=6681 mean 44.5808, std dev 17.9056 Age at first positive detection (female) N=9216 mean 46.0527, std dev 18.1003 T-test independent samples. Statistic -5.0841, p-value 3.736e-07 [Men's infections are detected earlier, suggesting sligthly earlier development of symptoms. It could imply that symptoms are more pronounced in men] Age at first positive detection for a child <=12yo (male) N=224 mean 8.2902, std dev 2.3334 Age at first positive detection for a child <=12yo (female) N=280 mean 8.3286, std dev 2.2936 T-test independent samples. Statistic -0.1853, p-value 0.8531 No difference between boys and girls, despite a difference between men and women Drilling down into the age distribution 2 UBT positive individuals only had default DOB recorded (1900). Excluded from age related calculations Age Range UBT_pos\% WApop\% Signed P-val ( 5 .. 14) 620 0.0390 0.1293 -0 (15 .. 19) 488 0.0307 0.0663 -1.483e-89 (20 .. 24) 866 0.0545 0.0710 -2.071e-17 (25 .. 34) 2730 0.1717 0.1445 7.362e-22 (35 .. 44) 3098 0.1948 0.1465 8.581e-62 (45 .. 54) 3040 0.1912 0.1385 1.246e-75 (55 .. 64) 2479 0.1559 0.1134 9.091e-59 (65 .. 74) 1607 0.1011 0.0681 1.879e-54 (75 .. 84) 782 0.0492 0.0394 5.051e-10 (85 .. ) 171 0.0108 0.0153 -4.557e-07 [Interpretation: Negative p-value used to indicate a value less than expected; unsigned p-value indicates more then expected. Age range 0-4 was ignored as min age was 3yo. This data suggests that the disease is not mainly in older people, and largely absent in the young, as one recent paper did] expected rate of initial positives (ignorning initial indeterminates) 0.215 Testing whether there are any differences between different age groups in the proportion of initial negative tests Age Range N Pos N Neg PC Pos pval ( 5 .. 14) 598 1555 0.278 0.000 (15 .. 19) 474 2430 0.163 -0.000 (20 .. 24) 852 3476 0.197 -0.002 (25 .. 34) 2680 9319 0.223 0.012 (35 .. 44) 3034 9973 0.233 0.000 (45 .. 54) 2964 10546 0.219 0.099 (55 .. 64) 2393 9621 0.199 -0.000 (65 .. 74) 1520 6364 0.193 -0.000 (75 .. 84) 728 2586 0.220 0.243 (85 .. ) 160 470 0.254 0.008 <> Number of indeterminate reads, ie greater than top of negative (50), but below bottom of positive (200): 7578 Counts of positive, negative and indeterminate counts by age range, and indeterminate ratio 5 - 14: negative 1877 positive 768 indet 528 indet ratio 0.1996 15 - 19: negative 2762 positive 575 indet 316 indet ratio 0.0947 20 - 24: negative 3944 positive 1037 indet 351 indet ratio 0.0705 25 - 34: negative 10860 positive 3330 indet 898 indet ratio 0.0633 35 - 44: negative 12010 positive 3942 indet 1019 indet ratio 0.0639 45 - 54: negative 12789 positive 3859 indet 1164 indet ratio 0.0699 55 - 64: negative 11867 positive 3258 indet 1347 indet ratio 0.0891 65 - 74: negative 7984 positive 2108 indet 1117 indet ratio 0.1107 75 - 84: negative 3306 positive 1020 indet 660 indet ratio 0.1526 85 - : negative 581 positive 209 indet 160 indet ratio 0.2025 Interpretation: Evidence of reproducibility issues in the very young and very old Median UBT values for positive, negative and indeterminate findings by age range 5 - 14: negative 15.0 indet 98.0 positive 1189.5 15 - 19: negative 10.0 indet 91.5 positive 1898.0 20 - 24: negative 10.0 indet 84.0 positive 2020.0 25 - 34: negative 8.0 indet 91.0 positive 1998.0 35 - 44: negative 9.0 indet 87.0 positive 2048.5 45 - 54: negative 9.0 indet 90.0 positive 1896.0 55 - 64: negative 10.0 indet 90.0 positive 1736.5 65 - 74: negative 11.0 indet 92.0 positive 1440.5 75 - 84: negative 12.0 indet 92.0 positive 1190.0 85 - : negative 15.0 indet 96.0 positive 833.0 [Notice that for the problematic very young and very old categories, the median negative value is less negative (closer to boundary count of 50) while the median positive is less positive, though still well above the threshold for positive determination (200).] <> People with singleton indeterminate UBT test results (no follow up): 3463 People with initial indeterminate UBT test results who did follow up: 2307 <> Count of where negative call follows indeterminate: 1986 Count of where positive call follows indeterminate: 488 The Fisher Exact test p-value 0.0363 suggests that apparent excess of negative calls is not particularly significant, as it follows the trend where around 80\% of the first tests were negative, now just after initial indeterminate Mean indeterminate UBT before a definitive negative call 97.280, std dev 38.081 Mean indeterminate UBT before a definitive positive call 118.527, std dev 41.309 Disinct, but significantly overlapping UBT values for indeterminate UBT values before a definitive value suggests that the boundaries are appropriate <> patients with only definititve results (pos or neg). count 70810 mean age 45.661 patients with single indefinite results. count 6150 mean age 47.083 patients with consecutive indefinite results. count 592 mean age 51.750 T test between age of patients with zero indeterminate calls, and those with single indeterminate calls: statistic -5.921, pval 0.0000 T test between age of patients with single indeterminate calls, and those with consecutive indeterminate calls: statistic -5.219, 0.0000 <> The method here is to correlate the number of people with Hp infection (UBT persons, UBTp) in each SA2 area with the percentage, in this case of Aboriginal persons, in the respective SA2 areas Number of Aboriginal Australians in WA at 2011 Cenus 69185 which is a rate of 0.031 versus the WA population Taken across all second level ABS statistical areas (SA2) with population great than 500 based on the Aboriginal Australian population in each SA2, 548.183 UBTp are Aboriginal Australians but based on Aboriginal Australians as a percentage of the WA population, 488.687 UBTp wold be expected which is a significant over-representation, with a signed p-value of of 0.00343 To test how this is relates to possiblity that fewer Aboriginal Australians are being tested, when the same analysis is rate of presentation for testing, based on single negative detections, the rates is 0.028, the expected count is 1731.275 and the actual is 1540.247 which has signed p-value -1.06e-06. Actual rate of Aboriginal Australians being tested for H pylori infection can then be used to reevaluate the rate of positive detections. Expected 434.766, actual 548.183, p-value 4.99e-08 Looking at the distribution of the 142262 people who did not state a country of birth in the 2011 Census Comparing Australian born, Overseas born, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australian populations are there any similarities with the distribution of 'Country_birth_not_stated_P' category Pearson correlation coefficient, Australian born versus Country not stated: 0.585 Pearson correlation coefficient, Overseas born versus Country not stated: 0.592 Pearson correlation coefficient, Aboriginal Australian versus Country not stated: 0.289 Pearson correlation coefficient, non-Aboriginal Australian born versus Country not stated: 0.535 This test looked at the question of how to deal with the approximately 5% of the WA population who did not respond to the question in the census of country of birth. Is their distribution across SA2 areas similar to Aboriginal Australias, non-Aboriginal Australia born, or overseas born. Answer: more likely Non Aboriginal Australian born or overseas born equally well correlated, so will simply divide counts in proportion <> Comparison by Community Community WA_pop Expected UBTp Actual UBTp Signed p-value Non-Aboriginal Australian born 1423636.00 10064.84 9835.15 -4.64e-05 Overseas born 727742.00 5145.00 5544.63 4.83e-12 Interpretation: High rate in overseas born. Low rate in non-Aboriginal Australia born <> Unemployed people, UBTp exected 380.312, actual 391.125, p-val 0.279 People who did not attend school, UBTp exected 75.607, actual 92.658, p-val 0.0287 People with schooling up to Year 8, UBTp exected 495.602, actual 525.610, p-val 0.0871 People with schooling up to Year 9, UBTp exected 532.558, actual 537.854, p-val 0.411 People with schooling up to Year 10, UBTp exected 2724.666, actual 2719.342, p-val -0.458 People with schooling up to Year 11, UBTp exected 1221.276, actual 1221.720, p-val 0.496 People with schooling up to Year 12, UBTp exected 6000.722, actual 5920.878, p-val -0.094 People with TAFE qualifications, UBTp exected 2461.714, actual 2459.639, p-val -0.482 People with University qualifications, UBTp exected 2013.459, actual 1924.787, p-val -0.0164 SA2 statistical areas with the 224 highest rates of Helicobacter pylori infection 2010-2015 SA2 SA2 Name UBT Persons 51086 Dianella 424.054 51045 Bayswater - Embleton - Bedford 303.298 51124 Bentley - Wilson - St James 263.914 51056 Ballajura 237.000 51132 Beckenham - Kenwick - Langford 229.050 51136 Maddington - Orange Grove - Martin 214.201 51138 Forrestfield - Wattle Grove 213.276 51059 Ellenbrook 212.061 51133 Canning Vale - East 208.257 51041 Perth City 207.000 51057 Beechboro 206.410 51137 Thornlie 198.000 51085 Balga - Mirrabooka 180.389 51131 Willetton 176.595 51098 Alexander Heights - Koondoola 172.472 51099 Butler - Merriwa - Ridgewood 171.443 51108 Wanneroo 167.757 51104 Marangaroo 156.520 51105 Mindarie - Quinns Rocks - Jindalee 156.115 51128 Parkwood - Ferndale - Lynwood 154.728 51185 Baldivis 153.000 51047 Morley 151.068 51090 Nollamara - Westminster 150.557 51122 Rivervale - Kewdale - Cloverdale 146.195 51205 Broome 141.434 51097 Yokine - Coolbinia - Menora 139.821 51044 Bassendean - Eden Hill - Ashfield 137.877 51159 South Lake - Cockburn Central 137.672 51103 Madeley - Darch - Landsdale 137.621 51199 Kalgoorlie 127.475 51102 Girrawheen 124.008 51134 Gosnells 122.184 51182 Murdoch - Kardinya 122.145 51012 Eaton - Pelican Point 121.339 51191 Singleton - Golden Bay - Secret Harbour 118.000 51110 Armadale - Wungong - Brookdale 117.025 51166 Fremantle - South 114.321 51188 Rockingham 112.513 51084 Balcatta - Hamersley 109.211 51006 Bunbury 107.532 51093 Stirling - Osborne Park 106.789 51119 East Victoria Park - Carlisle 106.000 51125 Canning Vale - West 103.148 51127 Cannington - Queens Park 100.820 51165 Fremantle 100.721 51181 Melville 100.402 51140 Kalamunda - Maida Vale - Gooseberry Hill 95.948 51210 Geraldton 95.695 51148 Banjup 95.690 51042 Subiaco - Shenton Park 92.615 51135 Huntingdale - Southern River 92.615 51118 Belmont - Ascot - Redcliffe 92.000 51123 Victoria Park - Lathlain - Burswood 92.000 51141 Lesmurdie - Bickley - Carmel 91.648 51107 Tapping - Ashby - Sinagra 91.622 51062 Lockridge - Kiara 91.115 51046 Maylands 91.000 51208 Kununurra 90.771 51206 Derby - West Kimberley 89.000 51089 Karrinyup - Gwelup - Carine 88.759 51100 Carramar 87.000 51225 Albany 86.590 51147 South Perth - Kensington 85.000 51024 Halls Head - Erskine 84.336 51178 Booragoon 83.301 51200 Kalgoorlie - North 83.246 51213 Geraldton - South 78.022 51109 Yanchep 78.000 51014 Harvey 77.867 51169 Bertram - Wellard (West) 77.856 51039 Mount Lawley - Inglewood 77.824 51149 Beeliar 77.510 51095 Tuart Hill - Joondanna 76.874 51027 Mandurah - North 76.418 51187 Port Kennedy 76.000 51020 Pemberton 75.491 51145 Como 74.769 51161 Success - Hammond Park 73.750 51066 Midland - Guildford 73.633 51170 Calista 73.282 51096 Wembley Downs - Churchlands - Woodlands 73.230 51043 Wembley - West Leederville - Glendalough 73.152 51035 Nedlands - Dalkeith - Crawley 73.000 51003 Busselton Region 72.407 51068 The Vines 71.684 51002 Busselton 71.593 51101 Clarkson 71.442 51054 Swan View - Greenmount - Midvale 71.426 51079 Mullaloo - Kallaroo 71.076 51180 Leeming 70.247 51192 Waikiki 70.176 51243 Northam 69.000 51013 Gelorup - Dalyellup - Stratham 68.952 51071 Currambine - Kinross 68.653 51129 Riverton - Shelley - Rossmoyne 68.018 51174 Parmelia - Orelia 66.663 51117 Seville Grove 66.413 51211 Geraldton - East 65.912 51190 Safety Bay - Shoalwater 65.813 51186 Cooloongup 65.487 51193 Warnbro 65.011 51177 Bicton - Palmyra 65.000 51219 East Pilbara 64.275 51220 Karratha 64.028 51070 Craigie - Beldon 61.944 51146 Manning - Waterford 61.231 51040 North Perth 61.000 51072 Duncraig 61.000 51009 Collie 61.000 51048 Noranda 60.116 51217 Northampton - Mullewa - Greenough 60.104 51233 McKail - Willyung 59.752 51143 Mundijong 58.259 51005 Australind - Leschenault 58.133 51019 Manjimup 56.509 51154 Hamilton Hill 56.467 51197 Exmouth 55.890 51212 Geraldton - North 55.291 51207 Halls Creek 54.229 51198 Boulder 54.000 51073 Greenwood - Warwick 54.000 51113 Forrestdale - Harrisdale - Piara Waters 53.746 51115 Mount Nasura - Mount Richon - Bedfordale 52.816 51160 Spearwood 52.118 51049 Chidlow 51.000 51078 Kingsley 50.702 51196 Carnarvon 50.085 51077 Joondalup - Edgewater 49.867 51017 Bridgetown - Boyup Brook 49.000 51023 Greenfields 48.895 51163 Yangebup 48.010 51179 Bull Creek 47.753 51034 Mosman Park - Peppermint Grove 47.445 51152 Coogee 47.102 51239 Gingin - Dandaragan 46.000 51053 Mundaring 46.000 51028 Mandurah - South 45.619 51153 Coolbellup 44.371 51088 Innaloo - Doubleview 44.276 51224 South Hedland 44.012 51223 Roebourne 43.972 51015 Koombana 43.324 51114 Kelmscott 42.336 51025 Mandurah 42.160 51175 Applecross - Ardross 42.077 51092 Scarborough 41.427 51008 College Grove - Carey Park 40.980 51067 Stratton - Jane Brook 39.954 51142 Byford 39.478 51029 Pinjarra 38.182 51238 Dowerin 38.000 51074 Heathridge - Connolly 37.850 51022 Falcon - Wannanup 36.573 51083 Woodvale 35.298 51164 East Fremantle 33.000 51234 Plantagenet 33.000 51036 Swanbourne - Mount Claremont 32.604 51139 High Wycombe 32.246 51031 Claremont (WA) 31.396 51030 City Beach 31.000 51065 Middle Swan - Herne Hill 30.824 51076 Iluka - Burns Beach 30.347 51075 Hillarys 30.173 51222 Port Hedland 29.671 51080 Ocean Reef 29.455 51116 Roleystone 28.620 51051 Helena Valley - Koongamia 27.704 51184 Winthrop 27.002 51228 Denmark 27.000 51227 Bayonet Head - Lower King 26.964 51245 York - Beverley 25.000 51038 Mount Hawthorn - Leederville 24.534 51195 Esperance Region 24.218 51081 Padbury 23.635 51209 Roebuck 23.566 51236 Chittering 23.151 51050 Glen Forrest - Darlington 23.000 51218 Ashburton (WA) 23.000 51094 Trigg - North Beach - Watermans Bay 22.329 51112 Camillo - Champion Lakes 22.201 51230 Katanning 22.000 51018 Donnybrook - Balingup 22.000 51026 Mandurah - East 21.818 51244 Toodyay 21.341 51183 Willagee 21.219 51215 Meekatharra 21.000 51232 Little Grove - Elleker 20.723 51214 Irwin 20.000 51226 Albany Region 19.970 51194 Esperance 19.782 51171 Casuarina - Wellard (East) 19.230 51016 Waroona 19.000 51010 Dardanup 17.000 51082 Sorrento - Marmion 16.980 51156 Jandakot 16.967 51176 Bateman 16.269 51240 Merredin 16.000 51203 Leinster - Leonora 16.000 51007 Capel 14.873 51033 Floreat 14.700 51144 Serpentine - Jarrahdale 14.263 51216 Morawa 14.000 51001 Augusta 13.659 51248 Murray 13.000 51058 Bullsbrook 12.849 51247 Kulin 12.413 51250 Wagin 12.000 51241 Moora 11.000 51032 Cottesloe 10.555 51202 Kambalda - Coolgardie - Norseman 10.279 51021 Dawesville - Bouvard 10.000 51231 Kojonup 10.000 51004 Margaret River 9.341 51221 Newman 7.042 51242 Mukinbudin 7.000 51237 Cunderdin 7.000 51246 Brookton 7.000 51168 Anketell - Wandi 6.968 51061 Hazelmere - South Guildford 6.311 51249 Narrogin 5.587 51229 Gnowangerup 4.000 51060 Gidgegannup 3.659 51162 Wattleup 3.568 51158 North Coogee 3.318